Labour Force Survey September 2024: Joblessness in Canada takes pause for the first time since January.

Declining for the first time in 8 months, the unemployment rate reached 6.5% in September alongside 47K job growth. Still, as demand from job seeks continues to outpace the supply from employers, something must give. Continued policy rate cuts will need to pave the way. This, too, while inflation is now within the BoC’s target range.

Marwa Abdou, Senior Research Director, Canadian Chamber of Commerce

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Canadian employment increased by 47K (+0.2%) in September (exceeding market expectations of 15K). This was driven mainly by employment among youth (+33K; 1.2%) and core-aged women (+21K; +0.3%).
The unemployment rate was little changed with a fall of 0.1 percentage points to 6.5%. The employment rate ticked down after the fourth consecutive month of increases. Unemployment continues to also disproportionately impact racialized populations as core-aged Black (+3.1 percentage points to 11.0%) and South Asian (+0.9 percentage points to 7.3%) who remain particularly affected.
Labour force participation fell 0.2 percentage points to 62.4% following a downward trend after hitting peak in February 2023 of 66.0%.
Total hours worked fell 0.4% on the month, however, were up 1.2% on a year-over-year basis.
Average hourly wages rose 4.6% on a year-over-year basis (+$1.58 to $35.59), compared with 5.0% in August. With the Bank of Canada’s August rate announcement, Canada still has little slack and with ongoing labour market conditions, its likely this will require further rate cuts.
Employment gains were concentrated in three industries: information, culture and recreation industry by (+22K; +2.6%), wholesale and retail trade, employment rose (+22K; +0.8%), and professional, scientific and technical services, employment increased (+21K; +1.1%).
Regionally, provincial employment increased in Ontario (+43K; +0.5%) Quebec (+22K; 0.5%), Manitoba (+5.1K; +0.7%) and Nova Scotia (+3K; +0.6%). British Columbia (-18K; -0.6%) and New Brunswick (-4.1K; -1.0%) saw declines.