Canadian Chamber of Commerce Business Data Lab

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Explore rapid commentaries and charts that help organizations understand economic data releases and what they mean.

 

6 Predictions for the Canadian Economy in 2026

BDL makes economic predictions for the Canadian economy in 2026.
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Economic Commentary

Mar 20, 2026

Strong Start to the Year, but Underlying Momentum Remains Fragile: Retail Sales January 2026

Retail sales posted a solid rebound in January, with broad-based gains across provinces signaling a firm start to the year. However, the strength was driven largely by autos, while softer grocery spending points to a consumer that remains cautious beneath the surface.
Economic Commentary

Mar 18, 2026

Bank of Canada holds interest rates on cloudy conditions downplaying oil price risk to inflation

The Bank of Canada holds its interest rate at 2.25%.
Economic Commentary

Mar 16, 2026

The dip before the spike, as base effects bring inflation below 2%

February 2026 inflation cooled to 1.8% annual growth compared to 2.3% in January.
Economic Commentary

Mar 13, 2026

Labour market softens as job losses mount and youth unemployment climbs: Labour Force Survey February 2025

Canada’s labour market weakened in February, with employment falling by 84,000 jobs—adding on to the losses in January—and the unemployment rate rising to 6.7%, signalling renewed slack in hiring. Job losses were concentrated among youth and were broad-based across industries, particularly in wholesale and retail trade, with Quebec and British Columbia accounting for a significant share of the decline.
Economic Commentary

Mar 12, 2026

Auto Shutdowns Reverse Canada’s Export Momentum: Merchandise Trade January 2026

January’s trade data marked a clear reversal from December’s stronger finish. Export weakness was evident across both U.S. and non—U.S. markets, highlighting how quickly sector—specific disruptions can reverse headline trade momentum, as autos and gold gave back some of the gains seen at yearend. If this softness persists, net trade could weigh on first—quarter growth. The data reinforce how concentrated sector swings continue to drive Canada’s monthly trade volatility.

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