Message from the Business Data Lab

This edition of Business Insights Quarterly provides a focused analysis of Canadian goods exporters and supply chains amid the escalating trade conflict between Canada and the United States.

As we move through 2025, Canadian businesses — especially goods exporters — face mounting headwinds. While the economy showed some resilience in early 2024, this quarter’s findings reveal that business optimism continues to erode, particularly among exporters.

For years, goods exporters have been among the most optimistic businesses in Canada, but that advantage has disappeared. Now, they contend with heightened trade policy uncertainty, weakening demand conditions, and renewed supply chain disruptions.

Supply chain challenges, once easing, are reemerging as a top business obstacle — not just for exporters, but across industries. Many of these disruptions trace back to last year’s transportation bottlenecks triggered by labour disputes across Canada’s trade-enabling infrastructure.

For the second straight quarter, businesses rank weak consumer demand as a greater concern than labour shortages—signaling a prolonged slowdown in spending amid rising trade policy uncertainty.

After a steady decline in pricing pressures, the share of firms expecting to raise prices has increased, signaling a potential short-term inflation uptick. This reversal is likely driven by new tariff measures, which are raising cost pressures for businesses and could feed into consumer prices in the months ahead.

The findings underscore growing pressures on Canadian businesses, particularly exporters, as trade tensions, supply chain disruptions and weaker demand conditions converge to shape the year ahead.

Despite these challenges, Canadian businesses have a strong track record of resilience. Navigating this evolving trade landscape will require strategic adaptation — from diversifying markets to strengthening domestic supply chains. The Canadian Chamber’s Business Data Lab (BDL) remains committed to providing timely data and insights to help businesses navigate these turbulent times and prepare for the future.

For more insights, explore specific industry and regional trends using our interactive Business Insights Tracker, available on the BDL website.