Labour Force Survey December 2025: Labour Report Falls Flat

“The Labour Force Survey for December 2025 shows only modest employment gains, and simultaneously a small uptick in the unemployment rate as more people joined the labour force. After three consecutive months of strong employment gains since September, the December labour report marks a notable cooling in labour market momentum. The fragile labour market remains top of mind as we head into 2026 with slower immigration, retirements looming and widespread concern around changing job markets as noted in our Q4 business insights quarterly. The Bank of Canada will be watching this development closely but we expect them to hold rates steady at their next rate decision.”

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Employment Levels: Employment in December went up by a modest number, 8,200, bringing the total gain in employment in 2025 to a little over 150,000. The employment rate increased by 0.7% YTD but is down0.3% y/y.
• Unemployment and Participation Rates: Despite stricter immigration policies, the unemployment rate went up by 0.3 percentage points m/m to 6.8% in December. With more people looking for jobs than available, the participation rate also rose by 0.3 percentage points to 65.4% for all workers.
• Demographics and Job Types: 2025 has been the toughest year since the pandemic for the labour market as a whole, but particularly for young workers. Despite the peak holiday shopping season, young workers once again faced a disappointing job market in December, losing 27,000 jobs and seeing their unemployment rate rise by 1.0 percentage point to 13.3%. This loss partially offsets the gains among youth in October and November (+70,000). Unlike other months, December was also weak for core-aged workers. The unemployment rate went up for both men and women by 0.4 percentage points, to 6.0% and 5.9%, respectively. The silver lining, however, is that gains in full-time employment offset losses in part-time jobs.
• Sectoral Breakdown: Employment gains in service industries outpaced gains in goods-producing sectors. Employment in health care and social assistance increased by 21,000, on top of 46,000 growth recorded in November. Primarily due to tariffs targeted toward goods, the goods-producing sector lost 34,500 jobs in 2025 (-0.8% YTD), whereas the services sector gained 184,000 jobs (+1.1% YTD).
• Provincial Trends: Employment in Quebec and Ontario together increased by a cumulative 29,000 in December (16,000 and 13,000, respectively). However, much of this gain was offset by losses in Alberta (-14,000), Saskatchewan (-4,000), British Columbia (-3,000), and New Brunswick (-2,000).

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