Labour Force Survey April 2025: Losses larger than they appear

“Canada’s labour market enters the fog of trade war on weaker ground. The goods-producing sectors lost 33,000 jobs in April—the third straight monthly decline—with Ontario’s manufacturing sector hit hardest. A temporary bump in public sector hiring, tied to the federal election, helped keep overall employment afloat. With the unemployment rate edging closer to 7% and a reduction in the employment rate, further manufacturing job losses seem likely. Still, early data on hours worked point to the beginning of the second quarter holding up better than expected.”

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Canadian employment was little changed in April, adding 7,400 jobs, following a decline of 33,000 in March. Job gains were concentrated in both and core-aged men and people aged 55+, mostly from the public sector. The employment rate (which is the share of the population 15+ in paid employment) shed a further 0.1 percentage points (ppts).
• The unemployment rate ticked up 0.2 ppts to 6.9%, as Trump’s global tariff wall announced in April, pushed manufacturing plants, especially major auto plants to layoff workers. Concentrated in southwestern Ontario, cities like Windsor are feeling the brunt with the unemployment rate jumping to 10.7%.
• Hours worked held steady rising 0.4% in April. This is surprising given the U.S. tariffs were in place in April, but could be supported by temporary jobs from the federal election.
• Average hourly wages were up 3.4% year-over-year, a slight slowdown from the 3.6% recorded in March. Most of the wage pressures are coming from temporary and unionized workers, but overall trending down as the labour market cools.
• By industry, employment was down in goods-producing sectors (-33k), with services carrying gains in April (+40k). The biggest gains were in public administration (+37k) and finance, insurance, and real estate (+24k). Employment losses were felt in sectors like manufacturing (-31k), wholesale and retail trade (-27k), and business, building and other support services (-14k).  
• Regionally, provincial job losses were concentrated in Ontario (-35k). Quebec and Alberta saw gains of 18k and 15k respectively. But both provinces experienced a 0.3 ppt rise in their unemployment rates.

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