In front of a Canadian audience last November, Kelly Craft, U.S. Ambassador to Canada during Trump’s first term, offered a blunt wake-up call ahead of a second Trump presidency: buckle up.

Not only will January 20 usher in Donald Trump’s second presidential term, but it could also usher in significant costs for the North American economy if Canada and Mexico are hit with punitive tariffs on all goods entering the United States. At the Canadian Chamber’s Business Data Lab, our working assumption is that U.S. tariffs will indeed be implemented early on, with some exceptions coming later as the full folly of this move becomes clear.

We’ve seen Trump embrace tariffs as a negotiating tool to score political gains from other countries before. In this case, our modelling suggests that these tariffs would come at a huge economic cost, reducing the annual purchasing power of the average Canadian by $1,900 CAD and the average American by $1,300 USD. Even if Canada avoids tariffs, the unpredictability of U.S. trade policy will continue to cloud investment decisions.

A Vital Cross-Border Partnership

The North American trading bloc is the envy of the world, with $1.5 trillion USD in goods trade between countries — mostly tariff-free, too — allowing businesses to develop efficient cross-border production networks. In fact, 50% of bilateral trade is between related Canadian and American companies.

It’s high stakes, and the Canadian business community and the government (at all levels) have a major role to play. Working in partnership with our American colleagues, we need to get the facts about the true nature of this economic relationship to Washington and state capitals. And with 2.3 million Canadian jobs and 1.4 million American jobs benefitting from our two-way trade, it’s important to remember that everyday working people also have a role in protecting this critical trade relationship.

No one will advocate for Canada, other than Canadians. And no one in Washington will listen unless Americans relay the costs of these actions.

That’s why the Business Data Lab is proud to launch its new Canada-U.S. Trade Tracker — a tool we’ve created to show the depth of economic ties between our two countries. This interactive online tracker brings Canada-U.S. trade data to life, offering Canadians, Americans, businesses and stakeholders insights and visualizations of trade flows and economic connections between the nations, and drilling down to the level of U.S. states and Canadian provinces where local politics matter. As tariff threats loom, understanding the nuances of this bilateral relationship has never been more critical.

Here’s a quick look at how this tool can help you make the case for free trade.

Explore Provincial Ties to the United States

Users can select their province or any other to see the amount of trade between that province and the U.S., the number of jobs supported by provincial exports to the U.S., the number of companies in that province that export to the U.S., and the province’s top state-level trading partner.

The tracker also provides a breakdown of the top export and import products for each province. In Ontario, for example, it’s no surprise that the largest export destined for the U.S., specifically Michigan, is autos and parts.

Explore State Ties to Canada

Our Trade Tracker also allows you to quickly see the relationship between U.S. states and Canada. Take Montana: $8 billion USD in goods flow between Montana and Canada each year, and Canadian investment in the state supports nearly two thousand Montanan jobs. All together, trade with Canada represents 16% of Montana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

A breakdown of key exports and imports by product category are also available for each U.S. state.

Did you know?

• Alabama imports $759 million USD in aerospace parts, primarily from Quebec, but its top trade partner is Ontario thanks to the auto industry.
• North Dakota imports $332 million USD in crops and oil seeds like canola from Central Canada.
• Washington imports $11 billion USD in oil and gas from Canada, along with $642 million USD in paper and construction materials.

Canada Is the #1 Customer for 34 U.S. States

Another Trade Tracker map highlights the states where Canada is the top trading partner, export destination, and import source.

Partners in Prosperity

By making complex trade data accessible and interactive, this tool will equip policymakers, businesses and the public with the knowledge needed to understand and advocate for maintaining a robust trade relationship between Canada and the U.S.

Visit the Canada-U.S. Trade Tracker to explore these insights firsthand.