Alissa Gorelova
Canadian nominal retail sales rose 0.6% in October, slightly below expectations, but remained unchanged in volume terms. The largest increases were seen in autos and furniture and electronics. Looking ahead, Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour is anticipated to help deliver a bump to Ontario retail sales in November. And while the Federal Government’s holiday tax break is expected to temporarily support household spending into early 2025, our quarterly survey is indicating subdued consumer demand is a growing concern among businesses.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Canadian nominal retail sales rose by 0.6% m/m in October, slightly below Statistics Canada’s flash estimate of 0.7%. Sales increased in 5 of 9 subsectors. In volume terms, retail sales were unchanged in October.
- Excluding motor vehicles and gas stations, core retail sales were up 0.2% m/m led by higher sales at furniture, home furnishings and electronics (+2.5%). The largest decrease came from food and beverage retailers (-0.7%.)
- Motor vehicles and parts were up (+2.0%) in October, with both new cars (+2.5%) and used vehicle dealers (+2.5%) experiencing an uptick in sales.
- Gas station retail sales saw a decline -0.5% m/m.
- Across provinces, 7 of 10 saw a rise in retail sales in October, with increases observed in Ontario (+0.9%) and British Columbia (+0.9%) from higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers. The largest decline was observed in Newfoundland and Labrador (-1.0%).
- Looking ahead: The flash estimate for November suggests little change in retail trade. Overall, we expect consumer spending to remain subdued in the final months as we head into 2025.
SUMMARY TABLE
