Retail Sales September 2024: Showing Strength.

Canadian retail sales rose for the third month in a row, up by 0.4% on the month in September, and registering a resilient 3.5% growth at annual rates for the third quarter. Core sales (excluding autos and gas) were up 1.4% m/m. Some interest rate sensitive items like building material, furniture and electronics saw notable increases, suggesting the decline in the Bank of Canada’s policy rate is starting to feed through.

Yesterday’s Federal Government announcement of a holiday tax break, which would temporarily support household consumption, suggests a less aggressive path for the December rate cut which ultimately depends on upcoming GDP and employment data.

• Alissa Gorelova, Economist, Canadian Chamber of Commerce

KEY TAKEWAYS

• Canadian retail sales were up for the third month in a row, rising by 0.4% m/m in September, in line with StatCan’s flash estimate of 0.4%. Nominal retail sales were up 0.9% in the third quarter, and a robust 1.3% in volume terms.
• Excluding motor vehicles and gas stations, core retail sales were up 1.4% m/m led by higher food and beverage sales (+3.0%) and building material and garden equipment (+3.0%). The only decrease in core retail sales came from clothing and accessories (-0.8%).
• Motor vehicles and parts were down 0.7% in September, with both new car (-0.7%) and used vehicle dealers (-5.2%) experiencing a decline in sales.
• Gas stations retail volumes saw a decline of 2.3% m/m, on the back of lower gasoline prices recorded in September (-10.7% y/y). In volume terms, sales at gasoline stations increased 3.2%.
• Across provinces, 5 of 10 saw a rise in retail sales in September, with the largest relative increase in Alberta (+2.3%) from higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers.Quebec retail sales increased 0.6%, while Ontario registered a decline (-0.1% m/m).
• Looking ahead: The positive flash estimate for October (+0.7%) suggests further strength in consumer spending, in line with the uptick in our Business Sales Tracker data. With the easing cycle now under way, interest rate sensitive items such as autos, building materials, furniture and electronics, may see a more consistent pick-up in volumes ahead.

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