Get detailed quarterly analysis of business conditions in Canada based on survey responses from over 15,000 Canadian employers.
Our economists and data scientists turn the responses from Statistics Canada’s quarterly survey of over 15,000 Canadian employers into relevant insights on business outlook, challenges and opportunities.
This edition of Business Insights Quarterly highlights a fragile but resilient Canadian business landscape. While headline confidence has steadied after five consecutive declines, businesses continue to grapple with rising trade frictions, policy uncertainty and tariff pressures.
Exporters, once the most optimistic group, have lost their edge. Goods exporters now trail other firms in confidence, underscoring their exposure to Canada–U.S. relations and tariff risks. By contrast, services exporters remain more stable, reflecting diversification and lighter tariff exposure.
The sharp rise in CUSMA preference utilization to a 20-year high shows that businesses are working harder to minimize costs and preserve margins. Still, 1 in 3 trade-engaged firms reports negative impacts from U.S. tariffs — with manufacturers and retailers hit hardest. While many exporters are diversifying suppliers or delaying investments, most businesses have not yet acted, preferring to “sit tight.” Encouragingly, half of firms believe they could withstand current tariffs and uncertainty for more than a year.
Labour market dynamics are also shifting. A softer hiring environment is emerging. Job vacancies have declined while the number of job seekers has increased, easing tightness. But are challenges structural or cyclical? Sectors such as construction and accommodation and food services continue to struggle with shortages, and youth unemployment remains above pre-pandemic benchmarks. Businesses are adjusting, but pressures persist with long-term implications for competitiveness and growth.
As CUSMA renegotiations approach, and as Canada faces a cooling labour market alongside continuing trade friction, the stakes for business planning are rising. The Business Data Lab (BDL) remains committed to providing timely, data-driven insights that help firms and policymakers navigate this environment.
For more insights — including regional, employment size and sector-level trends — explore our interactive Business Insights Tracker on the BDL website.
Patrick Gill
Vice President, Business Data Lab, Canadian Chamber of Commerce
Use the Business Insights Tracker to get a custom view of the findings from current and historical Business Insights Quarterly reports.
