Canadian Chamber of Commerce Business Data Lab

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Explore rapid commentaries and charts that help organizations understand economic data releases and what they mean.

 

6 Predictions for the Canadian Economy in 2026

BDL makes economic predictions for the Canadian economy in 2026.
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Economic Commentary

Mar 16, 2026

The dip before the spike, as base effects bring inflation below 2%

February 2026 inflation cooled to 1.8% annual growth compared to 2.3% in January.
Economic Commentary

Mar 13, 2026

Labour market softens as job losses mount and youth unemployment climbs: Labour Force Survey February 2025

Canada’s labour market weakened in February, with employment falling by 84,000 jobs—adding on to the losses in January—and the unemployment rate rising to 6.7%, signalling renewed slack in hiring. Job losses were concentrated among youth and were broad-based across industries, particularly in wholesale and retail trade, with Quebec and British Columbia accounting for a significant share of the decline.
Economic Commentary

Mar 12, 2026

Auto Shutdowns Reverse Canada’s Export Momentum: Merchandise Trade January 2026

January’s trade data marked a clear reversal from December’s stronger finish. Export weakness was evident across both U.S. and non—U.S. markets, highlighting how quickly sector—specific disruptions can reverse headline trade momentum, as autos and gold gave back some of the gains seen at yearend. If this softness persists, net trade could weigh on first—quarter growth. The data reinforce how concentrated sector swings continue to drive Canada’s monthly trade volatility.
Economic Commentary

Feb 27, 2026

Inventory drawdown causes GDP to knee jerk into contraction despite improving fundamentals.

Real GDP contracted by -0.6% annualized in Q4 2025, despite improving fundamentals bringing 2025 GDP growth at 1.7%.
Economic Commentary

Feb 20, 2026

Momentum stalls as consumer shifts into a lower gear: Retail Sales December 2025

Retail sales fell 0.4% in December, led by a 1.6% drop in autos and weakness in other big-ticket categories, signalling that consumer momentum stalled at year-end.

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