A nowcast is a real-time, data-driven estimate of current and near-term economic growth. Unlike traditional forecasts, nowcast estimates are entirely model-based, which means they don’t incorporate assumptions and aren’t adapted by an economist’s judgment. Each week, the nowcast model updates both the data and the importance of each variable in the model, making it highly responsive and accurate. However, as it doesn’t factor in long-term growth trends, estimates beyond the current or next quarter should be interpreted with lower confidence.

BDLNow is a nowcast tool that produces real-time estimates of Canada’s quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth well ahead of official Statistics Canada figures.

BDLNow incorporates 45 high-frequency economic indicators to generate an estimate of near-term economic conditions. This unique product provides a breakdown of the movements in the GDP estimate to help users understand which indicators are impacting the estimates. Users can also compare BDLNow’s result to the

Understanding current economic conditions and their trends is vital to decision-making for organizations, businesses and consumers.

You can select any prior “release week” from the dropdown above the data release table to see the releases and their respective impact on the point estimates over time. 

Businesses need the most accurate and timely information to understand when to make investments, increase hiring and take risk. GDP is a value-add measure of goods and services produced in the economy, accounting for inputs required in that production. The growth rate at which the economy expands indicates the general direction of economic conditions. A positive number indicates the economy expanded, while a contraction means the economy shrank, indicating weak economic conditions. Quarterly GDP data is more reliable to gauge the overall trends in the economy.

BDLNow begins tracking GDP on the first Monday of each quarter. Statistics Canada releases quarterly GDP approximately 60 days following the end of the quarter. As the release of quarterly GDP occurs in the following calendar quarter (i.e. Q2 data is released in Q3), users can track two consecutive reference quarters in the tool.

Upon release of a given quarter’s GDP from Statistics Canada, BDLNow begins tracking the next quarter in the calendar. For example: April 1 is the first day of Q2, but Statistics Canada doesn’t release Q1 GDP data until May 30. That means BDLNow continues tracking Q1 GDP until May 30, while simultaneously tracking Q2 GDP data.

Statistics Canada will publish the GDP by Income and Expenditure at the following schedule:

Q2 2025: August 29, 2025
Q3 2025: November 28, 2025
Q4 2025: February 27, 2026

BDLNow will stop estimation upon each official release and begin tracking the next reference quarter.

The model is based on the New York Federal Reserve’s nowcast model but is adapted as a dynamic factor expectations-maximization model. This allows the model to incorporate different data frequencies with varying lags, combining 45 indicators such as retail sales, manufacturing shipments, employment, commodity prices, and financial market data. Each week, the model updates both the data and the importance of each variable, making it highly responsive to new information. The decomposition of the GDP estimate into each variable’s contribution is shown in the “Impact Analysis” charts.