{"id":40370,"date":"2025-02-28T15:15:33","date_gmt":"2025-02-28T20:15:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businessdatalab.ca\/?post_type=publications&#038;p=40370"},"modified":"2025-02-28T15:37:23","modified_gmt":"2025-02-28T15:37:23","slug":"la-croissance-du-pib-du-canada-au-quatrieme-trimestre-defie-les-attentes","status":"publish","type":"publications","link":"https:\/\/businessdatalab.ca\/fr\/publications\/la-croissance-du-pib-du-canada-au-quatrieme-trimestre-defie-les-attentes\/","title":{"rendered":"La croissance du PIB du Canada au quatri\u00e8me trimestre d\u00e9fie les attentes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u00ab L&#8217;\u00e9conomie canadienne a pris de l&#8217;\u00e9lan \u00e0 la fin de 2024, principalement gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 une forte demande int\u00e9rieure et \u00e0 l&#8217;augmentation des ventes des entreprises, d\u00e9fiant ainsi le scepticisme quant \u00e0 la r\u00e9silience des consommateurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les exportations se sont \u00e9galement bien comport\u00e9es, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la vigueur du secteur p\u00e9trolier et gazier. L&#8217;atout le plus fiable du Canada en p\u00e9riode de turbulences reste le secteur des ressources naturelles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour l&#8217;avenir, une \u00e9conomie r\u00e9siliente reste la meilleure protection contre l&#8217;incertitude aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Il n&#8217;est pas certain que cette dynamique perdure, car nous sommes confront\u00e9s \u00e0 des d\u00e9fis tels que le ralentissement de la croissance d\u00e9mographique, le risque d&#8217;incertitudes commerciales et les droits de douane. N\u00e9anmoins, 2025 devrait \u00eatre une ann\u00e9e de transition, avec des taux d&#8217;int\u00e9r\u00eat plus bas, une reprise de l&#8217;inflation et l&#8217;\u00e9volution des d\u00e9fis int\u00e9rieurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La Banque du Canada devrait maintenir son taux directeur &#8211; pour l&#8217;instant. Mais si des droits de douane apparaissent, une r\u00e9duction des taux est presque certaine \u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Principaux enseignements<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le produit int\u00e9rieur r\u00e9el (PIB) du Canada a augment\u00e9 \u00e0 un taux annualis\u00e9 de 2,6 % au quatri\u00e8me trimestre 2024, ce qui est nettement sup\u00e9rieur aux attentes du march\u00e9 (1,7 %) et aux pr\u00e9visions de la Banque du Canada (1,8 %).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Par habitant, l&#8217;\u00e9conomie a progress\u00e9 de 0,2 % au quatri\u00e8me trimestre pour la premi\u00e8re fois depuis le premier trimestre 2023, m\u00eame si le PIB par habitant a diminu\u00e9 de 1,4 % en 2024 apr\u00e8s une baisse de 1,3 % en 2023.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le PIB mensuel de d\u00e9cembre a augment\u00e9 de 0,2 %, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la vigueur des ventes au d\u00e9tail et du secteur des services.<br>Les d\u00e9penses des m\u00e9nages ont augment\u00e9 de 1,4 % au quatri\u00e8me trimestre, stimul\u00e9es par des taux d&#8217;int\u00e9r\u00eat plus bas et une exon\u00e9ration temporaire de la TVH. La consommation globale des m\u00e9nages a ainsi augment\u00e9, et la consommation par habitant a progress\u00e9 pour le deuxi\u00e8me trimestre cons\u00e9cutif.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L&#8217;investissement r\u00e9sidentiel a augment\u00e9 de 3,9 % au cours du quatri\u00e8me trimestre, et nous pr\u00e9voyons que cette tendance se poursuivra \u00e0 mesure que les taux resteront bas. Les investissements des entreprises ont connu une modeste augmentation de 0,7 %, principalement dans la construction de b\u00e2timents et de machines.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les exportations ont augment\u00e9 de 1,8 % au quatri\u00e8me trimestre, contribuant \u00e0 une croissance annuelle de 0,6 % en 2024, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l&#8217;augmentation des exp\u00e9ditions de p\u00e9trole brut et de bitume.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Malgr\u00e9 une r\u00e9duction significative des stocks, due en grande partie \u00e0 l&#8217;ajustement des stocks de v\u00e9hicules automobiles, la forte demande int\u00e9rieure a apport\u00e9 un soutien solide \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e9conomie.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Perspectives et implications<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>L&#8217;\u00e9conomie canadienne a affich\u00e9 une croissance robuste au quatri\u00e8me trimestre, le PIB r\u00e9el augmentant de 1,5 % en 2024, ce qui est sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la pr\u00e9vision de la Banque, qui est de 1,3 %. La poursuite de la hausse de la consommation et la vigueur du march\u00e9 du travail laissent entrevoir une tendance positive. La baisse des taux et le rebond du march\u00e9 de l&#8217;immobilier pourraient maintenir cette dynamique. Toutefois, les droits de douane potentiels propos\u00e9s par le pr\u00e9sident Trump pourraient ralentir l&#8217;\u00e9conomie en augmentant l&#8217;incertitude et en retardant les d\u00e9cisions de d\u00e9penses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le PIB mensuel de janvier devrait augmenter de 0,3 %, ce qui donne un bon d\u00e9part \u00e0 l&#8217;ann\u00e9e, soutenu en partie par la suspension de la TVH. Les attentes du march\u00e9 concernant une r\u00e9duction des taux lors de la r\u00e9union du 12 mars de la Banque du Canada ont chut\u00e9 de 51 % \u00e0 46 %, ce qui sugg\u00e8re un maintien probable. La Banque devra surveiller de pr\u00e8s les risques pour la croissance et l&#8217;inflation, en particulier si des droits de douane sont impos\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00ab L&#8217;\u00e9conomie canadienne a pris de l&#8217;\u00e9lan \u00e0 la fin de 2024, principalement gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 une forte demande int\u00e9rieure et&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":38507,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"publication-type":[391],"publication-topic":[393],"class_list":["post-40370","publications","type-publications","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","publication-type-economic-commentary-fr","publication-topic-gross-domestic-product-fr"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>La croissance du PIB du Canada au quatri\u00e8me trimestre d\u00e9fie les attentes - Business Data Lab<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/businessdatalab.ca\/fr\/publications\/la-croissance-du-pib-du-canada-au-quatrieme-trimestre-defie-les-attentes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La croissance du PIB du Canada au quatri\u00e8me trimestre d\u00e9fie les attentes - Business Data Lab\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00ab L&#8217;\u00e9conomie canadienne a pris de l&#8217;\u00e9lan \u00e0 la fin de 2024, principalement gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 une forte demande int\u00e9rieure et...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/businessdatalab.ca\/fr\/publications\/la-croissance-du-pib-du-canada-au-quatrieme-trimestre-defie-les-attentes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Business Data Lab\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CdnChamberofCom\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/businessdatalab.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/iStock-1376140848-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2163\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1386\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@CdnChamberofCom\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/businessdatalab.ca\/fr\/publications\/la-croissance-du-pib-du-canada-au-quatrieme-trimestre-defie-les-attentes\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/businessdatalab.ca\/fr\/publications\/la-croissance-du-pib-du-canada-au-quatrieme-trimestre-defie-les-attentes\/\",\"name\":\"La croissance du PIB du Canada au quatri\u00e8me trimestre d\u00e9fie les attentes - 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